CSB publishes a detailed GDP estimate for 2023

On September 30, the Central Statistical Bureau published a detailed assessment of gross domestic product (GDP) of Latvia for 2023 on the official statistics portal stat.gov.lv. A revised estimate of the GDP for 2022–2024 has also been published. Revisions are carried out in all European Union member states in accordance with the Harmonised European Revision Policy (HERP).

Revisions of the GDP data are carried out to improve the quality of GDP data by updating or introducing new, more detailed data sources into the calculations, as well as to address shortcomings in the methodology used previously. These revisions contribute to the accuracy, reliability and comparability of GDP data for both domestic and international use. Revision of GDP data was carried out according to the Central Statistical Bureau revision policy guidelines.

Detailed annual report data from enterprises used for GDP calculation is provided 16 months after the end of the reference year. The annual GDP calculation then begins, and the results are published 21 months after the end of the reference year. As part of the regular revision process, the revision policy allows GDP data to be revised for up to 45 months after the end of the reference year. Therefore, the 2022 estimates were also revised, incorporating updated data from the State Revenue Service and the Ministry of Defence, reassessing the quality of previously received data, and correcting inaccuracies in earlier estimates.

As part of the planned annual revision, the time series of national accounts data were revised, starting with the 2022 estimate. The impact on the GDP result at current prices is -0.03 % in 2022, +0.5 % in 2023, but in 2024 +0.4 %.

Although the GDP estimate at current prices has increased as part of the planned annual revision, the impact on GDP growth rates is much more pronounced: +0.1 percentage point in 2022, -3.8 percentage points in 2023 and +0.4 percentage points in 2024.

¹ Constant prices reflect GDP growth excluding the impact of inflation, allowing for a comparison of real GDP changes between years.

As part of the regular revision process, the value added estimates for all sectors in 2023 were revised, with significant adjustments made to previously published estimates in the following sectors: electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, construction, as well as wholesale and retail trade, and the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

In 2023, significant structural changes took place in the Latvian economy in the area of energy resource production and consumption. In the electricity sector, compared to 2022, the drop in revenues was significant, mainly due to the rapidly falling electricity market prices. In contrast, 2023 proved to be a successful year for Latvia’s principal electricity producer, with hydropower plants generating a substantially greater volume of electricity, compared to the previous year, alongside strong performance in export markets. Meanwhile, the role of "Latvijas Gāze" AS in creating value added decreased significantly while consumers gradually replaced natural gas with alternative energy sources.

Although short-term statistical reports in the construction sector showed significant growth — which was also reflected in previously published quarterly GDP data — annual reports of enterprises did not confirm this trend, and a revision of the GDP data was carried out. At the same time, the annual GDP calculation indicates that the share of the shadow economy in the construction sector has decreased. 

After acquiring the annual calculations for the trade sectors and comparing them with previously published quarterly GDP data, inaccuracies were identified in the algorithms used for estimating the retail sector, which were subsequently corrected.

Considering the economic development uncertainty and uneven price changes in various markets, the scope of the GDP revision carried out in 2025 for the 2023 data at constant prices is larger than usual.

Based on the revised GDP estimate for 2023, also GDP estimate for 2024 was recalculated and, accordingly, also all quarterly data. The data used in quarterly GDP calculations are less detailed than in annual calculations — for example, there is no information on intermediate consumption by sector or the shadow economy. Therefore, indicators and algorithms based on the latest available annual data are used. In addition, the calculation approach was revised for several government sectors, such as:

• Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (O),
• Arts, entertainment and recreation (R),
• Manufacturing (C),
• Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (D).

The algorithms used in these sectors were adjusted to align more closely with the methods used in the annual GDP calculations.

The CSB has initiated work on process modernizing calculations, planning to develop an IT system that in the future will enable more efficient data processing from various data sources and thus provide more accurate detailed calculations, create visualizations, and enable more efficient use of resources in the future, allowing more time to be devoted to data analysis.

A more detailed description of revisions is available in metadata on the official statistics portal.

Methodological information:

Revisions of the GDP data are carried out to improve the quality of GDP data by updating or introducing new, more detailed data sources into the calculations, as well as to address shortcomings in the methodology used previously. These can be either refinements of the methodology at national level or new methodological guidelines at European level. These revisions contribute to the accuracy, reliability and comparability of GDP data for both domestic and international use.

All national accounts data tables published on the official statistics portal will be gradually revised according to the release calendar.

On 30 September 2026, GDP data for 2024 recalculated from annual data sources will be published.

Media requests:
Communication Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information on the annual data revision:
Inese Medne
Annual National Accounts Section
E-mail: Inese.Medne@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366799

More information on the quarterly data revision:
Gita Ķiņķevska
Quarterly National Accounts Section
E-mail: Gita.Kinkevska@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366791