RIKP2301
CSB publishes a detailed GDP estimate for 2021
On September 29 a revised estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018-2022 as well as more detailed GDP data for 2021 were published on the official statistics portal stat.gov.lv Revision of GDP data was carried out according to the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) revision policy guidelines.
2021 marked the economy as the second year of COVID-19 pandemic, which is characterized by the allocation and use of significant state budget funds in reducing the spread of COVID-19 and recovering the economy. Taking into account the uncertainty brought by COVID-19 crisis in the economic development, the CSB had already realised and informed data users in advance about possible larger revision volumes than usual, which is also confirmed by the new GDP 2021 estimate.
Sources of annual GDP data and methodology applied, based on a detailed calculation of industries and sectors, allow to improve the quality of GDP estimate. Although this may lead to a revision of initial results based on short-term statistics and methods applied in them, it is a common and welcomed process with the aim of acquiring a more accurate picture of economic developments over time.
At moderate economic development, the magnitude of regular data revisions is usually not important, as opposed to times when the economy is facing various significant external challenges.
In 2021 the revised data at constant prices show 2.5 percentage points larger GDP rise (+6.7 %) in contrary to the previously published (+4.3 %). Based on the revised GDP estimate for 2021, also GDP estimate for 2022 was recalculated and, accordingly, the quarterly data.
Data revision was also made for GDP estimate for 2019 and 2020. The reason for the revision is related not only to the update of data and calculations, but also to the full transition to double deflation method and other methodological improvements in the calculation of constant prices using annual data sources for data, starting with the GDP estimate for 2019. A more detailed description of revisions both at current prices and at prices of the previous year is available in metadata of data tables on the official statistics portal.
The double deflation method is the preferred method for calculating constant prices. It is based on the principle that output and intermediate consumption are deflated separately and gross value added is acquired as difference of these two indicators.
Quarterly revisions of GDP estimate for 2022 and 2023 were affected by the integration of revised annual periodicity GDP indicators into the quarterly time-series, mainly by the integration of revised share of intermediate consumption, integration of economic changes not captured in the reports, as well as application of the optimal time-series redistribution method.
The past six quarters were also affected by routine revisions in quarterly data sources. Here, the adjustment of taxes paid into the single tax account should be emphasized, redistributing the collected amounts both among different taxes and according to the accrual principle, applying them to the relevant quarters of the previous period. This adjustment significantly affected the estimate of GDP for the 1st quarter of 2023. At the same time, product subsidies were also revised, especially during the past three quarters.
The acquisition of revised price indices affected the estimate of several industries in the 2nd quarter of 2023. The revised basic data received from industry statistics were also integrated into the quarterly estimate.
GDP at current prices before and after revision, million EUR
| Before revision | After revision | Difference | Difference, % |
2019 | 30 678.6 | 30 572.9 | -105.8 | -0.3 |
1st quarter | 6 792.1 | 6 783.4 | -8.8 | -0.1 |
2nd quarter | 7 699.1 | 7 667.5 | -31.6 | -0.4 |
3rd quarter | 8 109.6 | 8 065.4 | -44.1 | -0.5 |
4th quarter | 8 077.8 | 8 056.6 | -21.2 | -0.3 |
2020 | 30 265.1 | 30 109.5 | -155.6 | -0.5 |
1st quarter | 6 980.1 | 6 931.7 | -48.3 | -0.7 |
2nd quarter | 7 148.9 | 7 095.6 | -53.2 | -0.8 |
3rd quarter | 8 013.1 | 7 957.3 | -55.8 | -0.7 |
4th quarter | 8 123.0 | 8 124.8 | +1.8 | +0.0 |
2021 | 33 616.5 | 33 348.9 | -267.6 | -0.8 |
1st quarter | 7 050.3 | 7 010.7 | -39.6 | -0.6 |
2nd quarter | 8 218.4 | 8 154.8 | -63.5 | -0.8 |
3rd quarter | 8 999.7 | 8 904.8 | -94.9 | -1.1 |
4th quarter | 9 348.2 | 9 278.7 | -69.6 | -0.7 |
2022 | 39 062.5 | 38 870.0 | -192.5 | -0.5 |
1st quarter | 8 331.3 | 8 274.5 | -56.8 | -0.7 |
2nd quarter | 9 613.3 | 9 620.9 | +7.6 | +0.1 |
3rd quarter | 10 422.0 | 10 412.4 | -9.5 | -0.1 |
4th quarter | 10 696.0 | 10 562.2 | -133.8 | -1.3 |
1st half of 2023 | 19 320.8 | 19 284.6 | -36.2 | -0.2 |
1st quarter | 9 148.7 | 9 162.6 | +13.9 | +0.2 |
2nd quarter | 10 172.0 | 10 121.9 | -50.1 | -0.5 |
On 30 September 2024, GDP data for 2022 recalculated from annual data sources will be published, and in accordance with the GDP data revision policy, the entire GDP time-series will be revised.
Media requests:
Communication Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 2788066
More information on the annual data revision:
Inese Medne
Annual National Accounts Section
E-mail: Inese.Medne@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 6736679
More information on the quarterly data revision:
Gita Ķiņķevska
Quarterly National Accounts Section
E-mail: Gita.Kinkevska@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366791
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