In June, business environment became more favourable in manufacturing, construction and services

According to Central Statistical Bureau business tendency surveys ¹, business environment became slightly more favourable in manufacturing, construction and services but less favourable in retail trade.

Business environment in manufacturing remains broadly stable

In manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator stood at −4.1 in June, having risen by 0.3 percentage points compared with May.

Out of 23 surveyed manufacturing sub-sectors, 11 recorded an increase in the confidence indicator and 12 a decrease. Business environment improved in several of the major manufacturing sub-sectors – manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture (up by 1.8 percentage points), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (0.3 percentage points), and manufacture of electrical equipment (10.4 percentage points). Conversely, business environment became less favourable in manufacture of food products (down by 1.8 percentage points), manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (7.4 percentage points), and manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (4.5 percentage points).

Business environment in construction shows a slight improvement after two months of decline

In construction, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator recovered slightly in June, rising by 0.5 percentage points to −7.7 after declining for two consecutive months. At the sub-sector level, business environment improved in civil engineering, whereas it deteriorated in construction of buildings and specialised construction activities.

Overall, the business environment in services remained broadly unchanged

The services sector recorded a seasonally adjusted confidence indicator of 2.0, with the business environment improving by 0.3 percentage points month on month.

Excluding seasonal effects, entrepreneurs in insurance (36.0) were the most optimistic in June, with the business environment returning to its typically positive level after two months of unusually low confidence indicator values. High confidence indicator values were also recorded in financial service activities (15.1) and information service activities (13.9). The lowest confidence indicator values were recorded in land transport (−12.0), employment activities, such as activities of employment placement and temporary employment agencies and other human resources provision (−11.7), as well as security and investigation activities (−10.9).

Overall, out of the 30 surveyed services sub-sectors, 18 reported a positive business environment and 12 a negative one. Month on month, the business environment improved in 15 sub-sectors, while 15 recorded a deterioration.

Business environment in retail sale of automotive fuel deteriorates sharply

Since the beginning of the year, business environment in retail trade has remained relatively stable, with the confidence indicator staying positive throughout the past two years. Month on month, however, it deteriorated by 2.5 percentage points, leaving the confidence indicator barely above zero, at 0.2.

Business environment remained positive in both retail sale of food and retail sale of non-food products (2.9 and 5.4, respectively), although the confidence indicators in both sub-sectors declined slightly month on month. The confidence indicator also remained positive in the sale and repair of motor vehicles and of motor vehicle parts and accessories (2.5), despite decreasing by 1.8 percentage points compared with May. In the retail sale of automotive fuel, business environment has been negative since February 2026. June, however, recorded a particularly sharp deterioration, with the confidence indicator falling to −16.4, a level comparable to the exceptionally low and atypical values recorded at the end of 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak and the associated restrictions had a severe impact on the sub-sector.

Overall economic uncertainty diminishes

According to business assessments, economic uncertainty decreased in all four major economic activities. It remained highest in manufacturing (19.8) and retail trade (19.3), while the lowest levels were recorded in construction (17.4) and services sector (10.5).

By contrast, according to consumer assessments ², economic uncertainty increased sharply, reaching 19.5, its highest level since January 2025. 

In June 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator ³ in Latvia was 96.5. It has been declining for three consecutive months and has reached its lowest level in the past two years. The Employment Expectations Indicator stood at 101.1 in June, exceeding its long-term average of 100.0.

Methodological information:

¹ Central Statistical Bureau carries out monthly business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services in line with the methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, co-funded by the European Commission.

² The monthly consumer survey is carried out by Latvijas Fakti under the methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, co-funded by the European Commission.

³ Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) calculates the Economic Sentiment and Employment Expectations Composite Indicators using the results from business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
Email: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information on the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738