In May, positive business environment recorded in retail trade and services

According to Central Statistical Bureau business tendency surveys¹, May 2026 recorded positive business environment in retail trade and services, while in manufacturing and construction it was negative.

After briefly becoming less favourable, business environment in retail trade improved

Following a short-term deterioration in April, business environment in retail trade improved by 1.5 percentage points in May, reaching 3.1.

Business environment in retail sale of both food and non-food products remained positive, at 3.1 and 6.4 respectively, and the confidence indicator in the sectors increased month on month. The confidence indicator in retail sale of automotive fuel was negative (−0.4), yet month-on-month it improved by 3.0 percentage points. In retail sale of motor vehicles and related parts and accessories, confidence indicator was positive (4.4), representing a month-on-month improvement of 2.9 percentage points.

Business environment in construction worsened

Business environment in construction has been fairly volatile over the past year, and, following a sharp improvement in March, confidence indicator in this sector has declined again over the past two months. Month on month, confidence indicator in construction had a sharp decrease, of 3.0 percentage points, reaching −8.4.

In construction of buildings, the deterioration was more moderate (down by 2.5 percentage points), while civil engineering and specialised construction activities recorded more substantial downward changes, of 5.6 and 8.2 percentage points respectively.

Business environment in manufacturing worsens slightly

In manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator stood at −4.3 in May, having decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared with April. Despite having declined for two consecutive months, the decrease has been minimal, and the overall business environment in manufacturing remains stable.

Out of 23 surveyed manufacturing sub-sectors, 11 reported higher confidence indicator and 12 lower. Business environment improved in most of the major manufacturing sub-sectors: in manufacture of food products by 1.1 percentage points, in manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork by 1.4 percentage points, in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products by 4.3 percentage points, and in manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment by 1.4 percentage points. However, the overall business environment in manufacturing has deteriorated slightly month on month, as the decrease in the confidence indicator in the sub-sectors with worsening outweighed the recorded increases.

Overall, the business environment in services remained broadly unchanged

The services sector recorded a seasonally adjusted confidence indicator of 1.6, with the business environment improving by 0.1 percentage point compared with April.

The highest seasonally adjusted confidence indicator values were recorded in rental and leasing activities (22.0) and information service activities (16.8), ahead of the financial sector (15.9), which is usually the most optimistic. High confidence indicator values were also recorded in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (11.2) as well as postal and courier activities (11.9).

The lowest confidence indicator was recorded in employment activities (−22.5), although accommodation also stands out due to the sharp decline (−15.1). In land transport, the confidence indicator continued to decline (−14.1), while in insurance, following a sharp deterioration in April, it fell further in May but remained positive at 5.5.

Overall, out of 30 surveyed services sub-sectors, 17 reported a positive business environment and 13 a negative one. Month on month, business environment improved in 12 sub-sectors and worsened in 18.

Overall economic uncertainty diminishes

The overall Economic Uncertainty Index, which reflects the predictability of the socio-economic situation in the country, was 15.3 in May, down by 1.8 percentage points compared with April.

According to business assessments, economic uncertainty has decreased in construction, services and manufacturing, while increased slightly in retail trade. The overall indicator was also affected by a slight decline in consumer uncertainty ².

In May 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator ³ in Latvia was 97.4 (98.0 in April), and over the past two months it has fallen below its long-term average. The Employment Expectations Indicator stood at 100.7, exceeding its long-term average of 100.0.

Methodological information:

¹ Central Statistical Bureau carries out monthly business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services in line with the methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, co-funded by the European Commission.

² The monthly consumer survey is carried out by Latvijas Fakti under the methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, co-funded by the European Commission.

³ Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) calculates the Economic Sentiment and Employment Expectations Composite Indicators using the results from business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
Email: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information on the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738