In February business environment positive in retail trade and services sector

Data of business tendency surveys¹ carried out by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that business environment in February 2026 was positive in retail trade and services sector, however, compared with January, it has worsened slightly. In turn, business environment in manufacturing and construction has remained negative, but, compared with the previous month, slightly improved.

Rise in environment in the services sector has slowed

In the services sector, according to seasonally adjusted data, confidence indicator in February was 3.6, and the slow, gradual upturn in business environment, which was observed since August 2025, has temporary stopped.

Excluding seasonal impact on business indicators, as usual, the most optimistic in February were enterprises in financial sector (18.7) and insurance (16.2). High confidence indicators were also recorded in motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (14.7), building maintenance (13.3) and rental and leasing services (11.9). 

In February, the most gloomy environment in services sector was registered in security (- 15.7) and warehousing and support activities for transportation (- 9.6), which in long term (17 consecutive months) has become the most pessimistic services sector, followed by land transport services sector (12 consecutive months). In turn, optimism has been observed for an extended period in the financial sector, insurance, and activities of head offices, where confidence indicators have remained positive for several years. Also environment of providers of information services (17 consecutive months) and telecommunication services (11 consecutive months) is positive. In turn, in February confidence indicator in real estate activities, where environment has been positive since the beginning of 2024, dropped below zero (- 2.0).

In retail trade non-food retailers were the most optimistic

In retail trade, the business environment has stabilised in recent months and is fluctuating slightly above zero. In February, according to seasonally adjusted data, confidence indicator was 2.1, which is 0.9 percentage points less than in January.

A decrease in the overall sector confidence indicator, compared with the previous month, was mostly affected by deterioration of business environment in retail trade of food products (of 5.8 percentage points) and retail trade of fuel (of 3.9 percentage points). Slightly fluctuating, confidence indicator in retail sale of non-food products continues to improve, and in February it has reached its highest value since the beginning of 2024. Also, in sale of motor vehicles and related parts and accessories and repair and maintenance of motor vehicles, even though negative, confidence indicators have increased, compared with January.

In terms of weather conditions – February – the most unfavourable month for construction since 2002

In February, confidence indicator in construction was -7.8, according to seasonally adjusted data, and, compared with the previous month, the improvement is minimal (0.1 percentage point).

Although the environment remains negative across all construction sub-sectors, enterprises in construction of buildings and specialised construction activities are relatively more optimistic, with confidence indicators of -4.9 and -4.8, respectively, in February. In turn, compared with January, environment in civil engineering has deteriorated by 3.5 percentage points and comprised -7.8.

In February, the snowy and cold winter continued to affect the construction sector. In the history of the construction business tendency survey (since 2002), as perceived by enterprises, February this year has been the most unfavourable month in the sector due to weather conditions. 73 % of enterprises indicated that weather conditions limit their economic activity, share of such enterprises is even larger than in January (59.2 %). Higher values of the indicator were registered in civil engineering and construction of buildings (81.8 % and 70.1 %, respectively), but in specialised construction activities 55.9 % of enterprises were negatively affected by weather conditions in their economic activity.

Business environment in manufacturing is stable

Confidence indicator in manufacturing, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised -4.0 in February. Compared with the previous month, it has increased by 0.2 percentage points. Out of 23 manufacturing sectors surveyed in February, compared with January, in 11 sectors confidence indicator increased, but in 12 reduced.

Business environment has improved by their share in the following significant manufacturing sectors: manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork (by 1.2 percentage points), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (3.9 percentage points), manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (0.2 percentage points) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (0.9 percentage points). In turn, business environment worsened in manufacture of food products (by 0.2 percentage points), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (0.1 percentage point) and manufacture of electrical equipment (5.3 percentage points).

Total economic uncertainty in February has increased

Total Economic Uncertainty Indicator, which describes the predictability of socio-economic situation in the country, amounted to 14.7 in February, which, compared with January, is 0.3 percentage points more.

As perceived by enterprises, compared with the previous month, economic uncertainty has increased in manufacturing and retail trade, but reduced in construction and the services sector. The overall growth of the indicator was partly driven by an increase of uncertainty in assessment of consumers², which rose by 2.4 percentage points in February compared with the previous month.

In February 2026 economic sentiment indicator³ in Latviacomprised 100.6, (99.5 – in the previous month). Also Employment Expectations Indicator in February, increasing to 100.5, has reached the long-term average value, but, compared with January, it has risen by 0.6.

Methodological information:

¹ Business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector are carried out by the CSB monthly, accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

² Consumer survey is carried out monthly by the enterprise Latvijas Fakti accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

³ Economic Sentiment, Employment Expectations Composite Indicators are calculated by the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN) using the results of business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States, according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information about the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738