In January business environment is improving in services sector and retail trade

Data of business tendency surveys¹ carried out by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in January 2026, compared to December 2025, business environment has improved in retail trade and services sector, but worsened in construction and manufacturing.

Services sector reported a more favourable business environment for already six consecutive months

In the services sector, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in January was 4.1, and business environment, compared with the previous month, has improved by 0.1 percentage point, reaching the highest value since March 2023.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, the most optimistic in January were providers of financial services (29.0) and providers of information services (18.5). High confidence indicators were also recorded in motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (17.5) and computer programming (15.7). In January, the most pessimistic in services sector were entrepreneurs in catering (- 18.4), where the low indicator can be partly explained by the sector’s seasonality, and security services (- 13.0). Low confidence indicator was also registered in warehousing and support activities for transportation (- 11.7), which has become the second most persistently pessimistic sub-sector (16 consecutive months), following land transport (18 consecutive months).

In total, out of 30 services sub-sectors surveyed environment of 19 sub-sectors was positive, of 11 – negative.

Business environment is improving in retail trade

After a temporary fall at the end of 2025, in January confidence indicator in retail trade, according to seasonally adjusted data, has increased by 0.8 percentage points and reached a value of 3.2.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, the most optimistic this month were retail sellers of non-food products (2.7). Business environment in retail trade of food products was negative in January (-0.6), however, compared with the previous month, it has improved by 4.1 percentage points. Confidence indicator in retail sale of fuel was typically low to the season (-13.5). In sale of motor vehicles and related parts and accessories and repair and maintenance of motor vehicles, where business environment in December had reached its lowest level in the past two years, in January it has improved by 7.2 percentage points, and the improvement is related not only to the seasonality of the sector.

Weather conditions in January are limiting construction activity, especially in civil engineering

Confidence indicator in construction, according to seasonally adjusted data, was -7.9 in January. As compared with December, it has decreased by 0.9 percentage points.

In construction, due to the seasonality of the sector, an improvement in business environment typically begins in January and usually continues until May. Also this January, business environment in all construction sub-sectors, although remaining negative, has improved compared with the previous month. However, excluding seasonal impact, the confidence indicator has declined in construction of buildings and civil engineering by 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, compared with the previous month, while business environment in specialised construction activities has improved by 0.4 percentage points. This January has been cold and snowy, and for many enterprises, construction activity has been significantly limited by unfavourable weather conditions. In construction of buildings the share of such enterprises in January was 59.2 %, in specialised construction activities 41.8 %, and in civil engineering it was the highest at 69.9 %.

Environment in manufacturing is slightly worsening

Confidence indicator in manufacturing, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised -4.0 in January. Compared with the previous month, it has decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Seasonally unadjusted data show that out of 23 manufacturing sectors surveyed in January, compared to December, in 14 sectors confidence indicator increased, but in 9 reduced.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, business environment has improved by their share in the following significant manufacturing sectors: manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork (by 9.8 percentage points), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (0.9 percentage points) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (13.1 percentage points). In turn, business environment has worsened in manufacture of food products (by 2.3 percentage points), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (2.5 percentage points) and manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (4.1 percentage points).

Total economic uncertainty in January has increased

Total Economic Uncertainty Indicator, which describes the predictability of socio-economic situation in the country, amounted to 14.4 in January, which, compared with December, is 4.2 percentage points more.

As perceived by enterprises, compared with the previous month, economic uncertainty has increased in manufacturing and the services sector, but reduced in construction and retail trade. In January, retail trade reached the lowest level of the Economic Uncertainty Indicator since the beginning of 2021, when monitoring of this indicator began. In turn, in the services sector the indicator rose sharply and, although it remains significantly lower than in other economic activities, it reached its highest level in the past two years. The overall growth of the indicator was partly driven by an increase of uncertainty in assessment of consumers², which rose by 7.7 percentage points in January compared with the previous month.

In January 2026 economic sentiment indicator³ in Latvia comprised 99.6 (100.9 in the previous month), and after a break of three months, it has dropped below the long-term average value again. In turn, Employment Expectations Indicator was 99.9 in January and, compared with December, it has reduced by 1.7.

Methodological information:

¹ Business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector are carried out by the CSB monthly, accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

² Consumer survey is carried out monthly by the enterprise Latvijas Fakti accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

³ Economic Sentiment, Employment Expectations Composite Indicators are calculated by the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN) using the results of business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States, according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information about the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738