Business environment in services sector and retail trade is positive in December

Data of business tendency surveys¹ carried out by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in December 2025, compared with November, business environment has improved in services sector, but worsened in construction and manufacturing. Also in retail trade environment has worsened, but in general it remains positive.

Services sector reported a more favourable business environment for already five consecutive months

In the services sector, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in December was 3.7, and business environment, compared with November, has improved by 0.6 percentage points, reaching the highest value since August 2024.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, the most optimistic in December were providers of postal and courier services (56.1). The high confidence indicator reflects not only the seasonality characteristic of this sector in December, but also that, in the assessment of providers of postal and courier services, December 2025 was the most optimistic December since 2010. High confidence indicators were also recorded in insurance (24.4), financial services (15.2) and motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing (14.1). In December the most pessimistic in services sector were entrepreneurs in air transport (- 38.6) and accommodation (- 31.1), however, business environment in both these sectors was more optimistic than in December 2024. Low confidence indicator was also in the small veterinary services sector (- 21.8).

In total, out of 30 services sub-sectors surveyed in December business environment of 13 sectors was positive, of 15 – negative, but in two sectors confidence indicator equalled zero.

Business environment in retail trade is worsening, but remains positive

In December confidence indicator in retail trade, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised 2.2. Even though the indicator is still positive, the Christmas shopping period has, to some extent, failed to meet entrepreneurs’ expectations, because, after an increase over five consecutive months, in December, compared to the previous month, business environment has worsened by 2.9 percentage points.

In December, the seasonally unadjusted confidence indicators in both food and non-food retail trade have reduced and were negative (- 4.7 and - 1.3 respectively); also confidence indicator in retail sale of fuel has dropped by 9.5 percentage points. In all these sub-sectors, even after excluding seasonal impact, business environment in December, compared with November, has deteriorated slightly. Low indicators in sale of motor vehicles (- 17.4), and sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories and repair of motor vehicles (- 15.4) also had a negative impact on the overall confidence indicator. In both of these sub-sectors, business environment in December reached its lowest level in the past two years.

Despite the winter season, the business environment is improving in specialised construction activities

Typically low confidence indicator in construction, according to seasonally adjusted data, was - 6.7 in December. As compared with November, it has dropped by 0.9 percentage points.

In construction, a seasonal decline in business environment is typical in autumn and winter, with the lowest values usually occurring in November and December. Consistent with this trend, in December the seasonally unadjusted confidence indicator in civil engineering – the sub-sector with the most pronounced seasonality – fell by 5.3 percentage points compared with November. In construction of buildings there was a drop of 6.2 percentage points, but in specialized construction activities business environment, compared with November, has even improved by 1.0 percentage point.

Environment in manufacturing is slightly worsening

Confidence indicator in manufacturing, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised - 4.0 in December. Compared with the previous month, it has decreased by 0.6 percentage points. Seasonally unadjusted data show that out of 23 manufacturing sectors surveyed in December, compared with November, in 11 sectors business environment has improved, in 12 – worsened.

In December, compared with November, according to seasonally unadjusted data, business environment has improved in the following by their share the most significant manufacturing sectors: manufacture of fabricated metal products, except of machinery and equipment (by 0.6 percentage points), manufacture of electrical equipment (3.1 percentage points), as well as manufacture of beverages (5.4 percentage points). In turn, business environment has worsened in manufacture of wood and of products of wood (by 1.2 percentage points), manufacture of food products (by 2.9 percentage points), as well as manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (0.2 percentage points).

Total economic uncertainty in December has increased slightly

Total Economic Uncertainty Indicator, which describes the predictability of socio-economic situation in the country, amounted to 10.2 in December, which, compared with November, is 0.3 percentage points more.

Economic uncertainty (as perceived by entrepreneurs), compared to the previous month, has decreased in retail trade, but increased in manufacturing, construction and services sector. Assessment of consumers² also affected the total uncertainty indicator, which has been below zero for the fourth consecutive month and is reducing total uncertainty.

In December 2025 economic sentiment indicator³ in Latvia comprised 100.7 (101.2 in the previous month), which exceeds long-term average value for the third consecutive month. In turn, Employment Expectations Indicator was 101.6 in December and, compared with November, it has increased by 2.0, once again exceeding the long-term average value.

Methodological information:

¹ Business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector are carried out by the CSB monthly, accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

² Consumer survey is carried out monthly by the enterprise Latvijas Fakti accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

³ Economic Sentiment, Employment Expectations Composite Indicators are calculated by the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN) using the results of business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States, according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information about the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738