In November business environment improved in retail trade, manufacturing and services sector

Data of business tendency surveys¹ carried out by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in November 2025, compared with October, business environment has improved in manufacturing, retail trade and services sector, but worsened in construction. In retail trade and services sector business environment was positive, but in manufacturing and construction it was negative.

Retail trade reported a more favourable business environment for already five consecutive months

In November, the Business Confidence Indicator in retail trade was 5.7 (seasonally adjusted data), rising by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month.

In November, the seasonally unadjusted confidence indicators in both food and non-food retail trade were not only positive (3.3 and 6.8, respectively), but also higher than in the previous month, although typically influenced by seasonal factors, the business environment in retail trade continues to deteriorate during the autumn months. Compared with October, business environment in retail sale of fuel worsened by 4.1 percentage points and was negative (- 8.2), however, it is still a comparatively high figure for this time of year. In November, confidence indicators were negative in sale of motor vehicles (- 12.6), and sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories and repair of motor vehicles (- 5.0). Compared with October, business environment of entrepreneurs has worsened in both sub-sectors.

After a drop in the first half of the year, environment in services sector is gradually improving

In the services sector, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in November was 3.1 and business environment of entrepreneurs, compared with October, has improved by 0.7 percentage points.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, among the most optimistic in November are service providers in the insurance (37.0), financial (22.6) and advertising services (16.7). Compared with October, environment in postal and courier services improved by 23.1 percentage points, ranking it among the most optimistic services sectors in November, however, this improvement can be partly explained by the sector’s seasonality as the Christmas season approaches. In November, the most pessimistic in services sector were entrepreneurs in air transport sector (- 28.6), however, compared with October, environment in this sector has improved. Confidence indicator was also low in accommodation (- 25.6), however, share of pessimists among entrepreneurs in this sector is smaller than it was in November in previous years. Entrepreneurs engaged in warehousing and support activities for transportation (- 10.4) as well as providers of veterinary services (- 13.8) were among the most pessimistic in November.

In total, out of 30 services sub-sectors surveyed in November business environment of 15 sectors was positive, of 14 – negative, but in one sector confidence indicator equalled zero.

After two months of improvement, environment in construction has slightly worsened again

Typically low confidence indicator in construction, according to seasonally adjusted data, was – 5.4 in November. As compared with October, it has dropped by 1.1 percentage points.

In construction, a seasonal decline in business environment is typical in autumn, with the lowest values usually occurring in November and December. Consistent with this trend, in November the seasonally unadjusted confidence indicator in civil engineering – the sub-sector with the most pronounced seasonality – fell by 12.3 percentage points compared with October. However, in specialized construction activities, the seasonal decline is unusually small (only 2.1 percentage points), whereas in construction of buildings, business environment has improved by 0.2 percentage points, compared with October.

In manufacturing, after a slight decline in the previous month, business environment is improving again

Confidence indicator in manufacturing, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised - 3.4 in November. Compared with the previous month, it has increased by 0.8 percentage points. Seasonally unadjusted data show that out of 23 manufacturing sectors surveyed in November, compared with the previous month, in 7 sectors business environment has improved, in 14 – worsened, but in two hasn’t changed.

In November, compared with October, according to seasonally unadjusted data, business environment has improved in the following by their share the most significant manufacturing sectors: manufacture of food products (by 1.7 percentage points), manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (5.5 percentage points) as well as manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (6.1 percentage points). In turn, business environment has worsened in manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork (by 6.5 percentage points), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (3.2 percentage points) as well as manufacture of fabricated metal products, except of machinery and equipment (10.1 percentage points) and manufacture of electrical equipment (1.2 percentage points).

Total economic uncertainty in November has reduced

Total Economic Uncertainty Indicator, which describes the predictability of socio-economic situation in the country, amounted to 9.9 in November, which, compared with the previous month, is 2.4 percentage points less.

As perceived by enterprises, compared with the previous month, economic uncertainty has decreased in manufacturing and the services sector, but increased in retail trade and construction. The decrease in the Uncertainty Indicator was also affected by assessment of consumers², which is below zero for the third consecutive month.

In November 2025 economic sentiment indicator³ in Latvia comprised 101.3 (100.8 in the previous month), which exceeds long-term average value for the second consecutive month. In turn, Employment Expectations Indicator was 99.6 in November and, compared with the previous month, it has reduced by 1.1, dropping below the long-term average value.

Methodological information:

¹ Business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector are carried out by the CSB monthly, accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

² Consumer survey is carried out monthly by the enterprise Latvijas Fakti accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

³ Economic Sentiment, Employment Expectations Composite Indicators are calculated by the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN) using the results of business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States, according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information about the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738