In September, business environment became more favourable in all economic activities

According to Central Statistical Bureau business tendency surveys¹, the business environment in all economic activities has improved in September 2025 – in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector. In retail trade and services sector it was positive, but in manufacturing and construction business environment was negative. 

Retail trade reported a more favourable business environment for already third month

In September, the Business Confidence Indicator in retail trade was 4.8 (seasonally adjusted data), rising by 1.5 percentage points compared to August.

In retail trade, business environment shows a pronounced seasonality – it usually reaches its highest point around May, but begins to gradually decline in the autumn, typically hitting its lowest level in December, despite the Christmas shopping season. Therefore, the decline in the seasonally unadjusted confidence indicators in a part of retail trade sub-sectors in September is mainly explained by seasonality. The most pronounced decline in business environment (by 17.0 percentage points), compared to August, was recorded in retail sale of fuel. However, despite the sharp drop, the confidence indicator in this sub-sector still remains slightly above zero (0.7). 

Compared to the previous month, business environment in retail trade of food products worsened by 0.6 percentage points, but still remains positive (6.6). Meanwhile, in retail trade of non-food products, the confidence indicator in September increased by 0.4 percentage points, compared to the previous month, reaching a value of 7.0. The only sub-sector of retail trade where business environment was negative in September (-1.0) was sale of motor vehicles.

In most sub-sectors of the services sector environment is positive

In the services sector, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in September was 1.7 and business environment, compared to August, has improved by 1.3 percentage points.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, the most optimistic in September were service providers in the insurance (25.9), accommodation (14.5), and travel agency and tour operator sectors (12.9). High confidence indicators were also recorded in the telecommunication and advertising sectors (11.3 and 10.8, respectively). Also in most sub-sectors of the other services sector business environment is positive. Only four out of 30 sub-sectors surveyed had negative confidence indicators in September; however, in three of them, environment has improved, compared to the previous month: by 0.8 in catering, by 0.5 in warehousing and support activities for transportation, and by as much as 9.1 percentage points in land transport. Only in computer programming the confidence indicator has remained negative for the fifth consecutive month, and in September, compared to August, business environment worsened by 1.6 percentage points.

In construction, the highest confidence indicator in the last 3.5 years

Typically low confidence indicator in construction, according to seasonally adjusted data, was - 7.5 in September. As compared to August, it has grown by 1.8 percentage points and reached its highest level since February 2022.

In construction, a seasonal decline in business environment is typical in the autumn, reaching its lowest values in November and December. Also this year, according to seasonally unadjusted data, confidence indicators have decreased, compared to the previous month, and are negative in all three construction sub-sectors: construction of buildings (-11.4), specialized construction activities (-10.3), and civil engineering (- 7.4). The decline in the confidence indicator is influenced by negative forecast of entrepreneurs regarding the expected changes of employment in the coming months. However, the business tendency indicator regarding the level of construction orders, which is the second component of the confidence indicator in construction, improved by 1.8 percentage points in September, compared to August, and reached its highest value since August 2019.

In manufacturing, after a slight decline in the previous month, business environment is improving again

Confidence indicator in manufacturing, according to seasonally adjusted data, comprised - 3.5 in September. Compared to the previous month, it has increased by 1.5 percentage points. Seasonally unadjusted data show that out of 23 manufacturing sectors surveyed in September, compared to the previous month, in 11 sectors business environment has improved, in 11 – worsened, but in one – hasn’t changed.

According to seasonally unadjusted data, compared to August, in September business environment has improved in the following by their share most significant manufacturing sectors: manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork (by 2.2 percentage points), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (0.8 percentage points) as well as manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (3.9 percentage points). In turn, environment worsened in manufacture of food products (by 0.2 percentage points) and manufacture of electrical equipment (by 1.3 percentage points). Assessing the business tendency in manufacturing over a somewhat longer period up to September this year, the sectors with the longest consecutive positive confidence indicators are manufacture of metal products (10 consecutive months), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (eight consecutive months), and manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (nine consecutive months).

Total economic uncertainty in September has reduced

Total Economic Uncertainty Index in September was 10.0, which is 3.6 percentage points less, compared to the previous month. This means that uncertainty has decreased, and the socio-economic situation has become more predictable.

As perceived by enterprises, compared to the previous month, economic uncertainty has decreased in manufacturing, construction and retail trade, but slightly increased in services sector. The decrease in the indicator was also driven by volatile consumer sentiment².

In September 2025, the Economic Sentiment Indicator³ in Latviawas 98.7, (97.3 – in the previous month). In turn, Employment Expectations Indicator, which has been volatile since the beginning of the year, has gone up to 99.3 in September, however, for the third consecutive month it is below the long-term average.

Methodological information:

¹ Business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services sector are carried out by the CSB monthly, accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

² Consumer survey is carried out monthly by the enterprise Latvijas Fakti accordingly methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys co-financed by the European Commission.

³ Economic Sentiment, Employment Expectations Composite Indicators are calculated by the General Directorate of Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN) using the results of business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States, according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
E-mail: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information about the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738