Population and key demographic indicators

Information on population reflects number of inhabitants in breakdown by various demographic characteristics: gender, age, citizenship, etc.

Usual resident.

The statistical population includes all residents of Latvia according to the following definition:

Persons living in Latvia or having an intention to live for a period of at least 12 months are considered to be usually resident population.

• Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics.

• Regulation (EC) No 862/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 July 2007 on Community statistics on migration and international protection and repealing Council Regulation (EEC) No 311/76 on the compilation of statistics on foreign workers.

Statistics database

Population and its characteristics in the EU countries

Eurostat publishes EU countries’ statistics on the number of live births by mother's age, marital status, citizenship, country of birth, level of education, region, the child sex and birth order.

After Population and Housing Census 2000 and 2011, the population number on periods from the previous to the current census was recalculated, because the number of present population found out at censuses significantly differed from changes in the population number found in registers.

Population estimate method

As from 1 January 2012, the population is estimated by a new methodology using a logistic regression model. The model uses data from 15 different national administrative registers.

Changes in timeseries

Since 2012, data have been published by registered residence, whereas until 2011 - by actual residence.

Since 2021, indicators have been published by planning and statistical region. In the previous years, a new indicator - Riga Planning Region (total population of Riga and Pierīga regions) has been added.

Starting from 2021 (by publishing the population as of the beginning of 2021 and other demographic indicators for 2020), the population of Bauska has been compiled in accordance with the expanded city limits of Bauska as of November 1, 2020 and expanded city limits of Sigulda as of September 1, 2020. 

The time series for the tables with the data on municipalities according to 03.06.2021 version of the Law on Administrative Territories and Populated Areas (entered into force on 1 July 2021) have been published from 2012 onwards.

Changes in actual residence estimation

In the 3^rd quarter of 2016, implementation of the project Data Collection for Sub-National Statistics (Mainly Cities) covered revision of the algorithm used to estimate territorial distribution of population – actual residence. The algorithm was supplemented thus allowing to produce more precise population estimate in municipality rural territories, municipalities, cities, and regions. The indicators referring to the beginning of 2016 were recalculated based on the updated algorithm, thus indicators in some municipality rural territories, municipalities, cities, and regions are not comparable with the indicators on the previous years.

In 2016, more detailed analysis of the declared places of residence of Latvia population was performed by georeferencing and visualising the respective data cartographically. The analysis allowed detecting places with a great number of persons having declared their place of residence at the workplace thereof, therefore the method used to estimate usually resident population was improved, and, in line with the internationally adopted definition, the number of persons having declared their place of usual residence at their workplace (enterprise registered in Latvia) but being foreigners and not living in Latvia actually (e.g., lorry drivers, who are guest workers from other countries), was excluded from the usually resident population. The changes were introduced starting from the data on 2017.

Due to the mentioned reason the population change, e.g., in Mārupe municipality, indicates an increase of 5 % in 2015, whereas in 2016 a decline of 0.5 %. The actual population increase in 2015 and 2016 constitutes 2–3 %. Similar situation may be observed in Riga and Carnikava municipalities, however population change in these areas is smaller.

Until 2017, actual place of residence was determined by using CATTU codes, comparing them with CATTU codes of 2011, CATTU codes registered in the Census 2011 and CATTU codes of the running year. As of 2018, actual place of residence is determined by using addressing object code and date of residence registration. These methodological changes allow determining actual place of residence of persons who have changed their residence within the boundaries of the same administrative territory as well as of those who during Census 2011 lived in an institutional dwelling and later returned to the registered residence. For example, if in 2005 person registered residence in Riga and in 2015 in another address in Riga while during Census 2011 lived in Jelgava, based on the methodology used prior – comparison of CATTU codes – the actual residence of the person would be determined as than in Jelgava. Based on the new methodology, using the last date of residence registration (2015 in the example), the usual residence of the person is determined as one in Riga. Another example, if person who last time registered residence in Riga in 2005 at the moment of the Census 2011 was imprisoned in Burtnieki municipality and was disimprisoned in 2015, based on the previous methodology – comparison of CATTU codes – the actual residence of the person would be determined as than in Burtnieki municipality. In line with the new methodology, bearing in mind that the addressing object code of a prison shows that it is an institutional dwelling and in 2019 person is not included in the list of people living in institutional dwellings, the address indicated in the Census 2011 is not used, and the actual residence of the person is determined as one in Riga. Due to this reason, in areas having large share of people living in institutional dwellings (e.g., Burtnieki municipality where prison population constitutes large part of the total municipality population), smaller actual population was estimated than that until 2017 and the number reflects the real situation more precisely.

N/A

To make population estimate CSB uses the following administrative data sources:

• Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs (OCMA);
• State Revenue Service (SRS);
• State Social Insurance Agency (SSIA);
• Ministry of Education and Science (MES);
• Agricultural Data Centre (ADC);
• Rural Support Service (RSS);
• National Health Service (NHS) (data on vaccination or testing for Covid-19 are not taken into account);
• State Employment Agency (SEA);
• Road Traffic Safety Directorate;
• Latvian Prison Administration;
• the Ministry of Welfare;
• State Chancellery.

Quality control of the estimate is ensured by using the following data:

• Social Assistance Administration Information System data on number of persons that have received local government allowances and services;
• individual data of the Administration of Studies and Research about persons who have received a study/ student loan for studies abroad (until 2021) and State Education Development Agency (since 2023);
• individual data of the Riga municipal limited liability company "Rīgas satiksme" about personalised e-tickets;
• information on persons who have participated in the largest household surveys.

Data on population births and deaths are acquired from the System for Registration of Civil Status Documents (in latvian - CARIS) of OCMA. The system is a common information system allowing to register civil status in any registry as well as continuously ensures availability of topical and reliable register information in any registry, General Registry Department of the Ministry of Justice and OCMA.

Information is acquired with a full-scope survey. It means that sampling method is not used to produce demography statistics.

Population Estimation

In 2012, CSB worked out methodology that is based on statistical classification and used for the production of population statistics. The statistical classification is aimed at dividing population registered in Latvia into two classes (groups) – those actually living in Latvia (usually resident population of Latvia) and those actually living abroad. The model of statistical classification was developed by applying logistic regression analysis.

Description of method in PDF

Determination of the registered residence in Latvia (since 2020)

Since Population Census 2011 for all persons included in the population estimate, both actual and registered place of residence is determined.

Actual place of residence is determined based on the actual place of residence specified in the Census 2011 and changes made in the OCMA Register of Natural persons. However, as years pass by, it becomes more and more difficult to determine place of actual residence, as people in the Register of Natural persons change their registered place of residence not only when moving to another residence, but also due to other reasons, e.g., to avoid paying higher real estate tax, a person not actually living in the address is registered there, or to have a place in a suitable kindergarten child is registered within the administrative territory of that kindergarten. Often when emigrating abroad, registered place of residence is not changed, or it is done with a delay of several years. Therefore, in the Census 2021 that will be conducted solely based on administrative registers, only registered place of residence will be used.

Registered place of residence is determined on several stages:

• finding initial addressing object code;
• allocating people into families based on family structure algorithm.

The initial addressing object code is defined by using addressing object codes which are added from the Register of Natural persons January datafile. For persons that cannot be given an addressing object codes in such a way, the codes together with a date are added from the Register of Natural persons datafile of December and November of the previous year and Register of Natural persons monthly datafile of February and March of the running year, verifying whether addressing object code is not one of an institutional dwelling. Such codes are not added with an aim to ensure that dates match and institutional dwellings include only persons residing them on 1 January.

For persons not having addressing object code, the addressing object codes of relatives are added in the following order – spouse, mother, father, child (the youngest child having addressing object code), i.e., if person is not married, addressing object code of a mother is added, etc. The codes of relatives are added regardless of the initial CATTU code of a person and fact whether the relative is included in the population estimate of the respective year, except for a separate cases when address of a child is changed to that of a mother or father (refer to the explanation further in the text).

None of the personal addressing object codes is changed to institutional dwelling code, i.e., an addressing object code of a relative in institutional dwelling, is not added.

For children aged 15 and younger (except for those living in institutional dwellings), a fact whether also any of the parents is registered in the dwelling is verified. If child is registered alone (without any of the parents), his/her addressing object code is changed to that of a mother (if mother does not have one, to that of a father). Address of a child is changed to the dwelling address of parents also if child is registered with another adult, e.g., grandmother, as in line with the UN Population and Housing Census recommendations family (family nucleus) is formed by family members of two consecutive generations (children and parents). Addressing object code of a child is not changed to that of a parent if population estimate method allowing to conclude that any of the parents lives abroad.

Within the second stage of determining registered place of residence, the people living in private dwellings are broken down into families with the help of family nucleus analysis algorithm. After dividing persons into families, residences of separate people are adjusted by changing addressing object code of a female living separately to that of a dwelling in which her husband lives together with common children aged 0–15. Such an approach is used because, when evaluating family structure recorded in the Census 2011, it was concluded that such an adjustment reflects actual situation more precisely.

This adjusted database is supplemented with persons the address codes whereof do not meet the population group “family” defined in the Population and Housing Census methodology, i.e., people living in institutional dwellings, people living in houses not separated into apartments, as well as single people (not having spouse, parents and children) not having addressing object code and residence place whereof is known only at municipality level. In line with the updated addressing object code-CATTU transition table, registered residence of each person is defined at the level of municipality rural territory, city and municipality.

Determination of the actual place of residence in Latvia (until 2019)

Actual place of residence is either registered place of residence (if it has been changed after the Population and Housing Census 2011) or that indicated in the Census (if persons has not changed place of residence since the Census).

Part of the reasons behind the change of place of residence indicated in the monthly datafiles of Register of Natural persons show loss of the previous place of residence instead of the registration of new place of residence, therefore new addressing object code does not appear. Only the reasons for changing place of residence resulting in new addressing object code are used.

Determining actual place of residence

If during Population and Housing Census 2011 person lived in a collective dwelling  (including un a liquidated one) and now is not included in the CSB data on residents of collective dwellings or does not have new addressing object code in the Register of Natural persons, the addressing object code fixed in the Census is not used. It is assumed that the residence address of person is that fixed in the Register of Natural persons before the Census. Codes of collective dwellings are not used also for persons who on the 1 January of the estimate year do not have addressing object code in the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs (OCMA) datafiles, and the respective code is taken from the historical population file (from 2012).

Verification of changes in addresses is made in case of alterations of administrative boundaries, and CSB information on uninhabited housings and those having status of collective dwelling is verified as well. Based on the updated addressing object code-CATTU transition table, actual place of residence of each person at the level of municipality rural territories and municipalities is determined.

Citizenship, ethnicity and country of birth

In the database, indicators of country of birth and citizenship with a mark EU- 27 indicate the composition of the EU-27 in 2020, after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom.

"Citizens of EU- 27 countries (excluding Latvia, since 2020)" includes the total number of the citizens whose citizenship is one of the EU-27 Member States (excluding Latvian citizens and non-citizens).

Country of birth, ethnicity and citizenship indicators are published only in case there are at least 10 inhabitants.

Explanation of data calculation

Life expectancy. Data on life expectancy of population are acquired with the help of calculations based on the CSB information on population mortality, average annual number of usually resident population as well as sex and age structure of the population.

Life expectancy estimates are based on crude, male, and female death rates in breakdown by five-year age groups (number of deaths per one resident of the respective gender and age). Until 2000, age of the person at death was calculated according to the birth or calendar year (death year minus birth year). As more statistical information is available, since 2000 the age of the person passed away is calculated in full years (from the birthday until the day of death). Starting from 2000, the death rate and life expectancy statistics calculations are based on the age of the person passed away in full years. The life expectancy estimates are made by using the R software library MortalityLaw.

Data are verified by comparing indicators on longer time period, observing trends of indicator changes and using graphical analysis.

Changes of the permanent residence of the population. When publishing data on the network after changes in the population's place of residence compared to the previous year, the data are obtained by relating the number of people who have moved to the total population in the network cell (excluding the persons for whom it is not known whether they have changed their residence as well as the persons for whom this indicator is not applicable: i.e. persons born during the previous year).