In the 3rd quarter, GDP has increased by 5.1 %
Data compiled by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) shows that in the 3rd quarter of 2021, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2020, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 5.1 % (according to seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data at constant prices).
In the 3rd quarter GDP at current prices was EUR 8.9 billion. As compared to the previous quarter, GDP went up by 0.6 % (according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data at constant prices).
In the 3rd quarter of 2021 GDP at current prices comprised EUR 8 852.2 million
Production approach
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
In the 3rd quarter of 2021, compared to the same period of the previous year, drop in value added in agriculture sector was estimated at 9.3 % (of which, drop in crop production of 12.5 %, but in livestock production – rise of 0.4 %). In turn an increase of 2.0 % was observed in forestry and logging, but in fishery there was a drop of 2.0 %.
Significant contribution in total value added growth was provided by successful activity in manufacturing – rise of 7.9 % (increase was observed in 17 out of 22 sectors). A steady growth for several consecutive quarters was observed in the largest manufacturing sector – manufacture of wood and of products of wood (rise of 4.5 %). Significant increases were also observed in other manufacturing sectors: manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (of 37.1 %), manufacture of furniture (24.1 %), manufacture of fabricated metal products (9.1 %).
In other industry sectors results of activity are various: in mining and quarrying growth comprises 8.1 %, but decrease was observed in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply of 7.8 % and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – of 1.9 %.
Due to the increase in construction costs and the decrease in the number of active objects, the volume of the construction sector at constant prices decreased by 3.3 %. It was negatively affected by the decline in construction of buildings (of 12.8 %) and specialized construction work which was carried out 3.5 % less (drop in 3 out of 4 sub-groups). In turn, development of the sector was positively promoted by an increase of 4.4 % in civil engineering work carried out (rise in all three sub-groups – construction of roads and railways – of 4.8 %, construction of utility projects – of 3.4 % and other civil engineering projects n.e.c. – of 3.5 %).
In the 3rd quarter of 2021 trade sub-sectors rose significantly: in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles – of 19.5 %, in wholesale trade – of 8.6 %. In retail trade increase (of 4.4 %) was promoted by rise in retail sale of non-food products by 8.1 %, but in retail sale of food products there was a fall of 2.2 %.
Growth in transport and storage sector (of 5.4 %) was positively affected by land and pipeline transport – by 0.7 %, air transport – by 3.6 times, warehousing and support activities for transportation – by 8.3 %, postal and courier activities – by 6.8 %. While development of the sector was negatively affected by drop of 8.0 % in water transport sector.
Increase in the value added in information and communication sectors of 9.5 % promoted the rise in volume in information services of 15.3 %, in computer programming and consultancy sector – by 13.2 % and in telecommunication services – by 2.4 %.
Increase of 41.7 % in financial and insurance activities was ensured by a successful activity of all sub-sectors this quarter. In financial service activities there was an increase in commission income, as well as transactions with financial instruments made a profit (in contrast to losses in the corresponding period of the previous year). In insurance, reinsurance and pension funding there was an increase both in insurance, where there was a rise in gross premiums written, and total contributions rose in private pension plans (3rd pension pillar).
Increase of 10.5 % in professional, scientific and technical activities sector was significantly promoted by advertising and market research (of 32.5 %), legal and accounting activities (12.3 %) and activities of head offices, management consultancy activities (10.7 %).
Administrative and support service activities rose by 5.2 % (increase was observed in 3 out of 6 sub-sectors). The most significant growth had travel agency, tour operator reservation services sector, which was affected by measures imposed for restriction of COVID -19 pandemic – by 68.4 %, rise in rental and leasing services sector comprised 16.9 %, labour recruitment and provision of personnel – 4.7 %. Reduction was observed in security and investigation activities (of 4.9 %), building maintenance and landscape architectural services sectors (3.5 %) and office administrative, office support and other business support activities (6.3 %).
In the 3rd quarter the volume of taxes on products (value added tax, excise and customs taxes) rose by 4.1 %, which was affected by growth in largest group of taxes on products (income from value added tax) and reduction in excise duty revenues.
Expenditure approach
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
In the 3rd quarter of 2021, total expenditure rose by 7.9 %, which was mainly affected by increase in total household expenditure of 9.0 %. Total household expenditure was promoted both by reduction of unemployment, and increase of average labour remuneration and rather low Covid-19 restrictions. Household expenditure increased in main consumption groups: purchase of food products – by 1.8 %, expenditure on housing – by 2.3 %, expenditure on transport – by 11.9 %. Household expenditure on recreation and culture rose by 16.3 %. This group consists of household expenditure on purchase of audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment, purchase of recreational and cultural items, purchase of goods related to garden and pets, purchase of recreational and cultural services, purchase of newspapers, books and stationary, as well as package holidays purchased by households. Expenditure of households on accommodation and catering services has increased by 2.5 %, which is largely due to the low base effect in 2020 and still lags behind significantly from the level of 2019.
Government final consumption expenditure grew by 4.4 %.
Investment in gross fixed capital formation increased by 6.0 %. Investment in machinery and equipment (of which in transport vehicles) rose by 16.0 % and in intellectual property products – by 18.3 %, but drop in construction comprised 3.3 %.
Exports of goods and services grew by 5.4 %. Exports of goods increased by 4.4 %. Main products exported this quarter were wood and products of wood, as well as electrical machinery and equipment. Exports of services increased by 8.6 %. Rise was mainly affected by exports of computer services and transport services.
Imports of goods and services increased by 13.9 %. Imports of goods increased by 11.8 %, but imports of services – by 27.5 %. Mostly electrical machinery and equipment, mineral products, as well as machinery and equipment n.e.c. were imported. Imports of transport services and other business services increased.
Income approach
(at current prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2020, in the 3rd quarter of 2021 compensation of employees at current prices increased by 10.8 %, of which total wages and salaries rose by 11.3 %, but employers' social security contributions – by 8.7 %.
The sharpest increase in compensation of employees was registered in information and communication – by 16.5 % and manufacturing – by 15.0 %. In services sectors compensation of employees rose by 7.5 %.
Gross mixed income increased by 15.4 %, whereas the balance of taxes on production and imports and subsidies increased by 14.0 %.
Possible changes made by the government sector estimates, balance of payments and financial services sector, moreover updated indices of business services will be taken into account in the GDP calculations and balancing of the quarterly national accounts on the 85th day after the reference quarter. The updated information will be available on Official statistics portal on December 23.
Time series of historical data and revision values of main GDP indicators are available for download in Excel files in the OSP GDP metadata section.
More information on the GDP is available in Official statistics portal section Economy “Gross domestic product – quarterly data”.
Methodological information
Calculations of quarterly data of the GDP are made in line with the methodology of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Main data sources used in calculations are:
- Surveys of quarterly and monthly enterprises and institutions;
- Labour Force Survey data carried out by the CSB;
- Data from the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury and the State Revenue Service;
- Data from Latvijas Banka and the Financial and Capital Market Commission;
- Data from the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Economics.
The GDP statistics from production and expenditure approach is calculated at current prices (registration and calculations are made at the actual prices of the corresponding period) and constant prices. The indicators at constant prices are expressed at prices of the previous calendar year and prices of the reference year (chain-linked).
To calculate GDP at the prices of the previous calendar year the actual prices of the previous calendar year are used as a base and the “annual average” method (where each running quarter (or year) is calculated at the average prices of the previous year) is used. To make the calculations, various deflators are used. Both volume indices and price indices may be used as deflators. The following price indices are used: consumer price index, producer price index, construction cost index, services producer price index, price indices of agricultural products, export unit value index, import price index. The following volume indices are used: change in number of employees and change in natural indicators (e.g., in removals, passenger number, etc.).
To calculate GDP at the prices of the reference (base) year (currently, prices of 2015) the indices calculated from the GDP indicators at the prices of the previous year are used to chain-link the calculated volume indices with 2015.
GDP from the income approach is calculated at current prices only.
COVID-19 crisis in time-series analysis area at the moment is considered as occurrence that is not seasonal, therefore, impact of crisis is not excluded from the data when carrying out seasonal adjustment. It must be taken into account that during the crisis both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data may be potentially exposed to greater data revisions than they were in a pre-crisis period. More information on seasonal adjustment during the COVID-19 crisis is available at https://github.com/CSBLatvia/SA-COVID-19-public/blob/master/SA-COVID-19-EN.md
The published data are adjusted in line with the Guidelines for CSB Revision Policy. The adjustments are made due to receipt of specified information as well as latest administrative data, inclusion of new economically active enterprises and institutions in surveys, specification of economic activity of sector of enterprises.
Media requests:
Communication Section
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More information on quarterly data:
Gita Ķiņķevska
Quarterly National Accounts Section
E-mail: Gita.Kinkevska@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366791
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