In September, business environment became more favourable in manufacturing

According to Central Statistical Bureau business tendency surveys¹, in September 2026 business environment became more favourable in manufacturing, less favourable in construction and services, while in retail trade it remained broadly unchanged.

Business environment in manufacturing improves for the fourth consecutive month

Despite remaining negative at −2.7 in September, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator in manufacturing has been rising gradually for four consecutive months.

Out of 23 surveyed manufacturing sub-sectors, 13 recorded an increase in the confidence indicator and 10 a decrease. Business environment improved in several major manufacturing sub-sectors, such as manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture (up by 0.6 percentage points) and manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (up by 4.7 percentage points). At the same time, business environment became less favourable in manufacture of food products (down by 1.8 percentage points), manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (down by 0.9 percentage points), and manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down by 0.6 percentage points).

Business environment in retail trade remains positive and broadly stable

In retail trade, business environment was positive (at 2.5), and it has remained broadly stable since July, with changes limited to individual sub-sectors.

Business environment remained positive in both retail sale of food and retail sale of non-food products (at 3.6 and 6.7 respectively). Compared with August, business environment in retail sale of non-food products improved by 0.3 percentage points, while in retail sale of food products it deteriorated by 0.4 percentage points. Confidence indicator also remained positive in the sale and repair of motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts and accessories, regardless of decreasing by 2.7 percentage points. In retail sale of automotive fuel, business environment has been negative since February 2026. September, however, recorded a month-on-month increase of 5.3 percentage points, and the indicator stood at −5.1.

Business environment in services deteriorates

The services sector recorded a seasonally adjusted confidence indicator of 3.3, with the business environment deteriorating by 2 percentage points compared with August.

Excluding seasonal effects, entrepreneurs in financial service activities (24.5) were the most optimistic in September. High confidence indicator values were also recorded in rental and leasing activities (18.6) as well as motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (10.4). The lowest confidence indicator values were recorded in publishing activities (−12.3) as well as postal and courier activities (−10.2).

Overall, out of 30 surveyed services sub-sectors, 17 reported a positive business environment and 13 a negative one. Month on month, business environment improved in 11 sub-sectors, worsened in 18, and remained stable in one (air transport).

Business environment in construction remains volatile, with a deterioration this month

In construction, the seasonally adjusted confidence indicator stood at −10.4, representing a month-on-month decline of 2.3 percentage points and reaching its lowest level this year.

At the sub-sector level, following a slight improvement in August, business environment deteriorated again in construction of buildings as well as in specialised construction activities, with the confidence indicators falling by 1.8 and 1.3 percentage points respectively. In civil engineering, business environment remained unchanged.

Overall economic uncertainty increases

Compared with August, economic uncertainty increased in all four major economic activities. It increased more sharply in services and retail trade (by 6.1 and 5.1 percentage points respectively) and more moderately in manufacturing and construction (by 3.3 and 1.1 percentage points respectively). 

In September 2026, the Economic Sentiment Indicator² in Latvia stood at 99.9 (100.3 in August), while the Employment Expectations Indicator, following declines in July and August, rose again to 100.7, exceeding its long-term average.

Methodological information

¹  Central Statistical Bureau carries out monthly business surveys in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and services in line with the methodology of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, co-funded by the European Commission.

²  Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) calculates the Economic Sentiment and Employment Expectations Composite Indicators using the results from business tendency surveys conducted by the Member States according to a common methodology.

Media requests:
Public Relations Section
Email: media@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 27880666

More information on the data:
Ieva Vanaga
Short-Term Business Statistics Section
E-mail: Ieva.Vanaga@csp.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366738